Borrowed Authority

Expert Messengers and the Credibility of Foreign Propaganda Narratives

Anton Shirikov

University of Kansas

November 20, 2025

“The principal cause of the conflict is the NATO decision to bring Ukraine into the alliance. There is no evidence from before 2022 that [Russian president Vladimir] Putin wanted to conquer Ukraine, that he was preparing a puppet government for Ukraine or pursuing any political measures that would make it possible to occupy the entire country.”


Who do you think said this?


John J. Mearsheimer, the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago

And Who Is the Source of This Quote?

“The largest issue in that conflict are these regions: Donbas, Crimea, Lugansk, and two others. They are Russian-speaking, and there have been referendums where the overwhelming majority of the people have indicated that they want to be under Russian rule.”


Steve Witkoff, the United States Special Envoy to the Middle East and United States Special Envoy for Peace Missions

Do Experts Lend Credibility to Foreign Propaganda?

  • Foreign propaganda can persuade citizens in democracies (Fisher 2020; Mattingly et al. 2025)
  • Domestic partisan actors and media add prominence to foreign messaging (Watanabe 2017; Benkler et al. 2018; Waight et al. 2025)
  • Yet, the role of experts in the spread of foreign messaging is unclear
    • Less prominent than partisan actors or major media
    • Distrust in expert authority is growing (Nichols 2017)
    • But perceived impartiality can add credibility to experts’ claims

Hypothesis 1: Attributing a foreign propaganda statement to a domestic expert increases belief in this statement

Can Evidence-Based Corrections Counter Propaganda Voiced by Experts?

  • Expert statements promoting propaganda may be quite straightforward to correct
    • Less partisan backlash to corrections (Nyhan and Reifler 2010; Badrinathan 2021)
    • Expert claims are viewed as evidence-driven \(\rightarrow\) can be countered with alternative evidence

Hypothesis 2: Corrections and qualifications of foreign propaganda statements promoted by experts decrease belief in such statements

Empirical question: Do such corrections fully offset the “expert credibility premium?”

Experimental Design

  • Survey experiment with 1,263 U.S. residents, August 2025
    • Sample from Cint Theorem
  • Two expert claims about the Russo-Ukrainian war by John Mearsheimer and Steve Witkoff, presented in random order
  • 2x2 factorial experiment
    • Expert claim displayed with/without source attribution
    • Claim displayed with/without a correction (context)
  • Outcome question:
    • How credible is this statement on a scale from 1 to 5?

Vignettes (Mearsheimer as an Example)

  • Statement only: “The principal cause of the conflict is the NATO decision to bring Ukraine into the alliance. There is no evidence from before 2022 that [Russian president Vladimir] Putin wanted to conquer Ukraine, that he was preparing a puppet government for Ukraine or pursuing any political measures that would make it possible to occupy the entire country.”
  • Statement+Attribution: STATEMENT + “This statement was made by John J. Mearsheimer, a Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago.”

Vignettes (Mearsheimer as an Example)

  • Statement+Correction: STATEMENT + “Context: Authoritative news reporting finds substantial evidence of Russia’s desire to capture Ukraine’s territory long before 2022. In 2014, the Kremlin attempted to stage uprisings and install puppet governments in Donbas, Lugansk, and other Ukrainian regions. Putin has questioned Ukraine’s right to exist. In 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine again, it planned eliminating Ukraine’s elected leaders and replacing them with pro-Russian politicians.”
  • Statement+Attribution+Correction: STATEMENT followed by ATTRIBUTION and then CORRECTION

Results: Main Treatment Effects

Figure 1: Perceived statement credibility based on the presence of expert attribution and factual corrections in the Mearsheimer and Witkoff experiments.

Effects by Partisanship: Mearsheimer

Figure 2: Perceived statement credibility based on the presence of expert attribution and factual corrections in the Mearsheimer experiment, depending on the respondent’s partisanship.

Effects by Partisanship: Witkoff

Figure 3: Perceived statement credibility based on the presence of expert attribution and factual corrections in the Witkoff experiment, depending on the respondent’s partisanship.

Takeaways and Next Steps

  • The speaker’s academic status can elevate foreign propaganda claims
  • However, audiences are receptive to evidence-based corrections
    • They can offset the “expert credibility premium”

Next steps:

  • Consider other domestic experts and possibly compare their credibility effects to those of politicians
  • Consider other outcomes, including policy opinions and attitudes to countries
  • Consider effects of corrections on expert credibility